ALEXANDRIA, Va. — A new forecast from the International Sleep Products Assn. sees a slower rate of bedding sales growth in dollars this year than ISPA had previously projected, but says unit sales will be healthier.

Growth next year, meanwhile, will be at lower levels than had been forecast earlier, but better days for the industry lie ahead in 2012, ISPA said. "Moderate expansion" is in the cards for the mattress industry in the coming years, ISPA said.

In its latest Mattress Industry Forecast, ISPA is predicting that the dollar value of mattress shipments this year will increase 5.5%, with units up by the same amount. In a forecast issued earlier this year, ISPA had envisioned dollar growth this year of 7.5% and unit growth of 4.5%.

The current forecast for 2011 is for a 5.7% rise in dollar sales and a 3.5% rise in units. The previous projection had been more optimistic, calling for a 10% jump in dollars and units up 6.3%.

The committee's latest forecast presents the ISPA panel's first look at 2012. It sees the dollar value of shipments rising by 7.8% in that year, with bedding units jumping by 4.4%.

ISPA's forecast committee meets twice a year to review a number of economic projections and to offer its own insights on mattress conditions and prospects. The panel now says it believes that the bedding recession is over.

"ISPA forecasts that the fourth consecutive annual decline in unit shipments has ended with 2009, and moderate expansion is expected over the forecast horizon," the new forecast report says.

But it notes that even with the projected gains, the industry still has a ways to go to make up for lost ground: "The 2012 value of mattress shipments will be only slightly below the 2007 levels, but the units shipped in 2012 will remain 7.2% lower than the units shipped in 2007."

The forecast panel offered some thoughts on the national economic climate. "The ‘double-dip' recession is not likely to happen," the panel wrote, "but growth will remain slow for the next few years. Housing sales are and will remain an issue, especially now that the federal homebuyer tax incentives have ended."

The panel also noted that "high unemployment continues," and said that "strong job growth is not expected for some time. When the Fed eventually begins to withdraw excess reserves from the financial system around 2012, unemployment will still be high, at least by historical standards (8.6%). Instability in some European financial markets may also disrupt the U.S. recovery."