Furniture and bedding sales picked up the pace in the last few months of 2013 and that momentum is expected to carry over into this year with better although still modest growth, according to Furniture/Today’s new consensus economic forecast for the industry.

U.S. consumption of furniture and bedding, the broadest measure of retail sales, is expected to increase 3.5% this year to $98 billion—not a big gain, but better than the industry’s estimated 1% growth last year.

Furniture store sales are projected to rise 3.1%, an improvement from last year’s meager 1.2% increase, to $53.7 billion.

Supporting the modest gains will be upticks in the economy, the housing market and the employment picture, according to the forecast.

U.S. Cross Domestic Product growth is forecast at 2.7%, sticking in the ballpark of gains this past year, which through the third quarter was estimated at 2.0%. Unemployment is expected to ease from an average rate of 7.5% in 2013 to 6.9% for the current year.

Housing starts are only expected to advance about 3% this year to1.12 million units, but the forecast calls for gains of nearly 19% in existing single-family home sales, to 5.13 million, and 12% in new home sales, to 520,000.

Home sales are expected to surge even as mortgage rates increase. The average 30-year fixed-rate home loan is seen advancing from last year’s estimated average of 4.3% to 4.8% for 2014, a significant jump but still quite low by historic standards.

In something of a repeat of 2013, only with a little more oomph, some analysts expect economic growth to start off slowly in the first quarter and build through the end of the year and beyond.

The University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics picked up on that theme in its newest forecast issued in late November: “Economic growth picks up next year, ramping up from a 2.4% pace around the turn of the year to 3% or better from mid-2014 through the end of 2015…. Consumption growth will gradually ratchet up as income growth increase.”

The Michigan model also expects the housing sector to be “a solid contributor” to growth because of an anticipated rise in household formation and rising incomes.

Also predicting a somewhat soft first half is the Assn. for Financial Professionals, a business group whose members are treasury and finance officials. In the 2014 AFP Business Outlook Survey, only 29% of the 824 members surveyed said they expect business conditions to improve in the first half, although the number expands to 52% when looking at the full year.

Only 10% in the first half and 15% for the full year expect conditions to weaken, according to the survey. The rest think conditions will stay about the same.

Their median prediction calls for GDP growth of 2.1% in 2014.

Fannie Mae’s forecast also calls for modest improvements in GDP throughout 2014, ranging from a 2.3% gain in the first quarter and growing each quarter to a 2.7% gain in the fourth.

Economists presenting at the Chicago Fed’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium in early December predicted that consumer spending will “rise at a moderate pace” this year, with car and light truck sales expected to reach 16 million units, a 3.2% gain from 15.5 million in 2013.

Industry analyst Jerry Epperson’s latest forecast for furniture and bedding sales growth this year is more optimistic than the Furniture/Today consensus prediction. Epperson, of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, is looking for a 5.2% gain this year on top of a 2.1% increase in 2013, which is also higher than Furniture/Today consensus estimate for the year.

“Because of the housing rebound in 2012 and 2013, we expect bedroom furniture to be a category of strength in 2014, and with more bedroom sales, mattress sales should benefit as well,” Epperson said in his forecast. “During the housing crisis, bedroom furniture and all case goods suffered more than upholstery, mattresses and other categories.”

Some other trends he sees for this year: Upholstery will benefit “from a new wave of power and other upgrades that continue to increase ticked prices,” and growth is likely in a couple of dissimilar niches, furniture for those who are fitness-oriented and for those who are obese.

“More retail expansions will occur as the stronger furniture and mattress chains expand to take advantage of the stores lost over the lengthy recession,” Epperson added. “Major new competitive battles are erupting in Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta and elsewhere.”

Epperson also has released forecasts for furniture and bedding for the next three years, calling for growth of 4.6% in 2015, 3.9% in 2016 and 2% in 2017.